01 Jun Shadow Wood at the Brooks Real Estate News | June 2020
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SUMMARY OF SHADOW WOOD HOME SALES
- Within the last 12 months, there were 29 sales; the average sales price was $370,028; and, these condos were on the market an average of 106 days;combined days on the market is 210.
- During the 12 months previous, there were 30 sales; the average sales price was $323,013; and, these homes were on the market an average of 123 days; combined days on the market is 231.
- During the last 12 months, there were 47 sales; the average sales price was $819,031; and, these homes were on the market an average of 112 days; combined days on the market is 267.
- During the 12 months previous, there were 67 sales; the average sales price was $844,935 and, these homes were on the market an average of 105 days;combined days on the market is 206.
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JUNE 2020 MARKET UPDATE
MAY’S PENDING SALES UP
“There continues to be high demand for living in Southwest Florida,” said Mike Hughes, Vice President of Downing-Frye Realty, Inc. “Pending sales increased in May and the market is slowly coming back to life. Our inventory remains stronger than ever. At the beginning of 2020, we had 1,006 listings and at the end of May we had 1,026 listings. During that same time period we had 1,093 sales. In May we had 202 pending sales for $111 million, 34 percent higher than April’s total of 151 pending sales for $80 million. Every price category performed better in May than in April, including properties above $1 million. There is pent up demand for living here, and those looking at properties during this particular time are very serious byers.”
BONITA /ESTERO: SALES, INVENTORY DOWN
April 2020 showed a dip mid-month in new and pended listings that corresponds with the onset of the Coronavirus outbreak. However, as the market moves through May, those numbers are ticking back up to levels last seen in late February and early March. Area brokers are still seeing low inventory numbers, and they also report that out of town buyers are taking advantage of virtual showings with great feedback from clients. In April 2020 the median closed sales price was up 10 percent from April 2019 to $329,950, while the times to sell a property decreased from an average of 93 days to 71 days.
FLORIDA: HOMOE VALUES HOLDING FIRM
Watch for Home Sales Rebound as Economy Opens Up
There are still many unknowns about COVID-19, but with that in mind, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun is cautiously optimistic about where the economy is heading, and he also sees positive indicators in the residential real estate market.
WASHINGTON – First a caveat: There are still many unknowns about COVID-19 and what might happen next. But with that in mind, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun sounded cautiously optimistic about where the economy is heading and positive indicators in the residential real estate market.
Yun predicted that steady and even rising home prices could point toward healthy home sales numbers once the economy reopens, and he saw signs that jobs could also rebound as stay-at-home orders ease.
Despite a decline in GDP, consumer spending and business spending in the first quarter of 2020, Yun said that residential investment – including home building, home sales, and remodeling – was actually up 21% during the first three months. He said that’s an indication, of how strong the housing market was before the pandemic hit.
Yun’s also encouraged by the fact that personal income was up by 2% and personal savings jumped a remarkable 152% related to curtailed household spending as the pandemic spread.
Yun hesitated to gauge the mindset of savers. “Are they waiting for the economy to reopen?” he said. “Or is it simply pessimism? There is certainly more money available.”
While grocery-store spending went up in March as spending at restaurants declined, Yun said that balance seemed to be changing a bit, with restaurant spending slightly improved over the last few weeks – a decline of just 60% to 70% year-to-year as some restaurants found ways to continue serving customers by engaging in social distancing and offering takeout service.
And while clothing stores, sporting and hobby stores, and department stores all saw steep declines in consumer retail spending over the same period a year ago, building materials and gardening spending actually increased by 10.4%, a hopeful indicator.
“People are upgrading their homes,” Yun said. “When the market reopens, that housing will go up in value. People are remodeling, working on lawn care. All things you do to sell a home.”
As grim as the unemployment numbers have been, Yun was encouraged by recent data. As of May 2, a reported 26 million people were jobless, in contrast to the high of 33 million who filed claims earlier in the lockdown. Yun inferred from the numbers that some people received unemployment checks for a few weeks and then got back to work, possibly in jobs in high-demand essential fields. He also said that it was important to watch for trends like these as a harbinger of improvement.
“Even in good years, people file (for unemployment),” he said. “We are looking for a flattening of the curve. When 1 million jobs are created in a week and less than 1 million file for unemployment, we will know the economy is turning for the better.”
Yun also said that the biggest job losses in April were found in leisure and hospitality (7.6 million) and in education and health (2.5 million). However, he saw potential for the latter category to rebound quickly once the economy reopens.
“I expect [education and health] to turn positive. People will need daycare. Hip replacement, knee surgery will be done again. These loses could be temporary.”
Home prices and sales
In addition to positive prognostications on the job front, Yun saw reason to be optimistic on the potential for home sales once the economy picks up steam. Of particular note were home prices, which he said were strong.
“There is no meaningful downward trend,” he said. “If anything, they appear to be rising.”
Yun pointed to the current housing inventory shortage as the source of stable prices, and he predicted that the shortage could grow even more severe since that the usual spring increase in listings didn’t occur this year. He suggested that sellers will be ready to list once the economy reopens. He used Georgia as an example since it was one of the first states to start to reopen.
“Listings are popping out” in Georgia, Yun said, “and buyers are quickly grabbing homes.”
He added further that healthy home sales are possible even if the job market is uncertain. “Even in high unemployment times,” Yun said, “60 to 70% have employment. And we have record-low mortgage rates. The situation could be good.”
Source: National Association of Realtors® (NAR)
© 2020 Florida Realtors®
By Catherine Mesick
At Shadow Wood Country Club, the health and safety of membership is a top priority. Staff are working hard to attempt to limit Club members’ and staffs’ exposure to the virus while continuing to provide members access to Club amenities.
Shadow Wood’s newest restaurant, the Golfside Grill, is offering prepared meals for curbside pick-up, Executive Chef Richard Crisanti and his team put together a menu of delicious meals to include both family-style and individual sizes. This curbside service is in-place for pickup of your prepared meals for you to enjoy in the comfort and safety of your own home! To view the to-go menu, click here. In addition to providing prepared meals, Shadow Wood is proud to offer their members a selection of items to purchase if there are necessities that we can assist them with to fill their pantry or fridge. To view the list of groceries available for member purchase, click here.
Visit the blog post to read more about how you can get involved as a Shadow Wood member: visit the blog here.
April Report Shows Naples Real Estate Market Held Its Value During Pendemic
Naples, Fla. (May 22, 2020) – Coronavirus slowed real estate market activity in April as expected during Florida’s safe-at-home restrictions. According to the April 2020 Market Report released by the Naples Area Board of REALTORS® (NABOR®), which tracks home listings and sales within Collier County (excluding Marco Island), overall closed sales decreased 28.6 percent to 838 closed sales compared to 1,173 closed sales in April 2019. Inventory decreased as well in April by 29.1 percent to 5,394 homes compared to 7,605 homes in April 2019. The April report also confirms home values remain intact.“Our priority is the safety of Naples residents and our members, as we all continue to practice socially responsible distancing while we conduct business during this health crisis,” said NABOR® President Lauren Melo, PA, Licensed Real Estate Broker with Florida’s Realty Specialists. “With the assistance of technology, creativity, and cooperation, real estate professionals are successfully completing transactions.”
To encourage a safe path to homeownership, NABOR® implemented three new actions in April to assist members as they conduct business during the COVID-19 pandemic:
- NABOR® lobbied state and local governments to successfully recognize real estate services as an essential service, in accordance with the U.S. Department of Homeland Security;
- NABOR® created a COVID-19 addendum and amendment to sales contracts to protect buyers and sellers;
- NABOR® trained members on new COVID-19 related services including virtual open house tours, COVID-19 stimulus relief package benefits, and new lender requirements.
Median closed prices increased .3 percent in April to $340,000 from $339,000 in April 2019. “Although there were slightly fewer price decreases in April than in March, still 1,654 or 31 percent of all listed properties experienced reductions in their offering price during April,” said Jeff Jones, Broker at Keller Williams Naples.
Like many essential service businesses, REALTORS® in Naples focused on implementing new strategies and modifying their business models during April to comply with self-distancing practices and accommodate for the welfare and safety of their staff, clients and the community.
“We saw a surge in virtual showings during April,” said Budge Huskey, CEO, Premier Sotheby’s International Realty. “What happened was a buyer would participate in several virtual showings, typically while their REALTOR® did the walkthrough onsite. Then, once the buyer eliminated the options down to one or two homes, they would do a physical walkthrough.”
As people were urged to stay home in April, showings decreased to 9,420 from 22,862 in April 2019 (does not include virtual showings). As a result, pending sales in April decreased 53.6 percent, as was expected.
“The desire for virtual home showings has risen rapidly,” remarked Fioretti. “During video tours, agents become the eyes of the buyer. They’re talking more than they would on a traditional tour, pointing out things that would be obvious in person but aren’t as clear through a camera lens like the quality of workmanship on any repairs or whether a bedroom will fit a king-size bed. Virtual home tours are becoming the new first step in homebuying,” added Fioretti.
Another asset that REALTORS® added to their toolbox in April was NABOR®’s COVID-19 contract addendum (or amendment for active contracts). The revised contract extends a closing date for an agreed amount of time if the lender is unable to approve the loan due to temporary obstacles caused by the pandemic including employee furloughs, and delayed appraisals, inspections, or government filing services.
“Given the amount of uncertainty right now, agents are quickly adding our special coronavirus addendum to new and existing contracts to provide some breathing room for delays in this fast-changing environment. These new documents are keeping deals together,” said Jones. “It’s providing much peace-of-mind for both buyers and sellers.”
The NABOR® April 2020 Market Reports provide comparisons of single-family home and condominium sales (via the Southwest Florida MLS), price ranges, and geographic segmentation and includes an overall market summary. NABOR® sales statistics are presented in chart format, including these overall (single-family and condominium) findings:
|Apr 2019||Apr 2020||CHANGE|
|Total closed sales (month/month)||1,173||838||-28.6%|
|Total pending sales (homes under contract) (month/month)||1,322||613||-53.6%|
|Median closed price (month/month)||$339,000||$340,000||+0.3%|
|Total active listings (inventory)||7,605||5,394||-29.1%|
|Average days on market||98||87||-11.2%|
|Single-family closed sales (month/month)||510||409||-19.8%|
|Single-family median closed price (month/month)||$464,500||$429,500||-7.5%|
|Condominium closed sales (month/month)||663||429||-35.3%|
|Condominium median closed price (month/month)||$272,500||$270,000||-0.9%|
Adam Vellano, West Coast Sales Manager, BEX Realty – Florida, said the April report “shows real estate is essential. The fact that REALTORS® were able to process over 800 closed sales during a month when most of the world was on lockdown is a testament to our market’s desirability and how real estate professionals are quickly adapting and conducting business in new ways. REALTORS® are helping their customers buy and sell homes through this crisis.”
Not all geographic areas in Collier County reported a decrease in closed sales during April. Single family home sales in East Naples (34114, 34117, 34120, 34137) during April increased 7.2 percent.
Broker analysts reviewing the April Market Report are optimistic that activity in the Naples area real estate market will resume momentum in the coming months (barring a return to April’s restrictions). If you’re a seller who took your home off the market in April because you feared social distancing would prevent a sale, consider relisting your home in May. You could attract an eager buyer. Property values are holding steady with price increases in two price categories reported in April (i.e., the $300,000 and below price category and the $2 million and above price category reported median closed price increases in April). And the overall list to sales price has remained steady at about 95 percent (for April 2019 compared to April 2020).
Seller’s or Buyer’s Market? It’s Up for Debate.
How many buyers backed off waiting for prices to fall? How many lost income and are gone for good? How many homeowners can still afford their mortgage? How has the pandemic changed attitudes? With so many unknowns, market predictions have little value right now.
But then a pandemic hit.
“We are in uncharted territory,” Caleb Liu, a real estate investor and owner of House Simply Sold, told The Mortgage Reports. Some homeowners may be forced to sell due to economic damage caused by the pandemic, he said, which means an increased housing supply. “And when the inventory goes up, prices fall.”
Some real estate experts believe buyers may have more leverage this summer. “The economy is still relatively strong,” says Rajeh Saadeh, a real estate attorney. “And the buyer pool this year will likely be smaller due to job and income loss. Those factors can help give buyers the advantage.”
Lower mortgage rates will also entice buyers. Nadia Evangelou, senior economist and director of forecasting for the National Association of Realtors® (NAR), says that the monthly payment for a typical home ($280,600) drops by nearly $150 when rates fall from 4% to 3%, which has occurred over recent weeks. In some high-end markets, that drop has caused monthly payments to be reduced by nearly $600.
But while buyers may have some advantages, economists aren’t ruling out the potential for a seller’s market as well, given the current lack of inventory and strong home-price stability.
“I don’t think the coronavirus will change the dynamics in the real estate market and give the upper hand to buyers,” Evangelou says. “A market favorable to buyers can happen when there are more homes for sale than there are buyers in the marketplace. And right now, we have a housing shortage.”
A balanced housing market is considered a five- to six-month supply of homes for sale. Currently, the market has less than a four-month supply.
That low supply is pushing home prices higher in many areas. Nationwide existing single-family homes for sale in March rose 8% compared to the previous year, according to NAR data. There’s less concern about foreclosures hampering home prices, too, since the government put moratoriums in place to protect owners during the economic uncertainty from the pandemic – and there are fewer at-risk mortgages in the U.S. due to safeguards created after the Great Recession.
Evangelou predicts that home prices will remain stable in the months ahead “due to the pandemic-induced reduction in inventory and less immediate concerns about foreclosures.”
Based on NAR consumer and real estate professional surveys, “potential buyers and sellers are indicating they may simply delay the process for a couple of months. But coming to 2021, prices are expected to rise 3% to 5% because of pent-up demand.”
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